If bird flu mutates to a human form will it really kill up to 25% of population in uk?
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There have been at least 10 influenza pandemics over the past three centuries (some just as deadly as 1918) and theoretical models have concluded that one will inevitably happen, sometime…eventually….in the future….at the some point. There is absolutely no conclusive evidence as to when it will happen or if it will even happen in our lifetime.
Regardless if we are overdue for a major flu pandemic, this does not imply that the public should automatically “overreact” on media reports of the bird flu. Those affected by the virus have all lived or worked in very close proximity to infected poultry. In almost all cases, domestic poultry were left to freely roam outdoors in close contact with wild aquatic birds and other wildlife. But those in metropolitan cities are showing the greatest concern. It is the continuous overreaction of the public which causes momentum effects in the pharmaceutical industry (and other industries for that matter). The hype has been more about selling Tamiflu than anything else. This is partly due to sensationalism in the media, but it's mostly due to a lack of education on effective prevention and treatment methodologies for specific diseases. Tamiflu does absolutely nothing to cure the bird flu and never has. It merely decreases symptoms and only under certain conditions. Most credible scientists agree that a catastrophic pandemic such as those in the past are highly unlikely in developed countries. This is 2006, and our methods of communication and science are light years from that time. The same technology that allows humans to travel so quickly around the globe also provides better medicine and better protection. So how in the world does anybody make the giant leap of faith that 103 deaths will translate to millions based on what we know about the H5N1 strain?
The bird flu itself is a tragedy for the people of Asia and the livelihood of many bird handlers. Even more tragic is how an epidemic among birds has been used to orchestrate public panic and divert us from addressing other more pressing health issues. More than half a billion people suffer from malaria, nearly 10 million have tuberculosis, of which 2 million will die in the next year. Thirty million have died from HIV/AIDS and more than 40 million are infected. Yet bird flu seems to be the most pressing health concern we hear about on mainstream media. It is a great irony that we spend more time worrying about what might be, rather than what is. We do need to have a strong foundation for research, and there is no question that an elaborate worldwide infrastructure for epidemics must be in place before a pandemic. I think understanding the evolutionary functions of mutating viruses is paramount in pandemic preparedness. If the current hype helps in the building of these fundamental mechanisms, so be it. What we DON’T need is a deceptive plot at the expense of public awareness to help inflate the stocks of a pharmaceutical company. If the current hype on Birdflu and Tamiflu is not a hoax, then I don’t know what is.
Other Answers:
i dont think so.attack of the over-rating is what we should be more worried about. :)
that cant happen over night anyway
Firstly, as it is a fairly random mutation no one knows what it will mutate into.
Secondly severe action would be taken if a significant outbreak happened
Thirdly there is no modern precident for such a plague
Just the media trying to talk up a story
the bird flu just like any other panademic is MAN made. AIDS, the bird flu, etc.of course it will kill people. that is what it was made for. "control the population"
An honest answer is: don't know. How can any one know anyway?
Fit Guy makes several good points. There is an influenza pandemic about every thirty years and we are over due for one. The multiple ways in which the flu virus can mutate creates repeated occurances of a mutation that the human population has no preperartion for and no immunity against it.
While presently there is not human to human transmission this could develop. And the press are experts at exagerating a situation to create fear. The truth about influenza vaccines is that they take six months to create because of how they are grown. That is why there was the shortage last year. There is no time to create new vaccine if enough is not available. As for anti-virals, Tamiflu does have some effect on the avian influenza. Right now there are only two major flu anti-virals. As with any disease it builds up resistance to the medications used to cure it. There is work being done on new anti-virals and the resistance of the avian influenza differs between loactions and time.
It is very important not to over react and to sort out the real information from the hype. At this point in time the avian influenza has killed half of those who have contracted it. And currently all of those who have gotten sick have has very close contact with birds. Flu vaccinations are your best front line of defense. In the US there is a new nasla vaccine offered in addition to the shot. The nasal is very new and still has restrictions but it will last for a year versus the months of the shot. Talk to your doctor and get their recommendations on the situation, especially with children.
I originally believed that there was no way with our curent medical advances and technology that this virus could cause a pandemic. After the research and seminars I have heard this virus is more adaptive and resiliant than anything. there are too many ways for it to change for us to predict and be able to stop it in advance. We need to educate ourselves, keep aware of what is happening, and be prepared.
Source(s):
Infection Control seminars, hospital planning, work related research and education.
bird flu jabs are coming out.. we are saved!
and it won't kill 25%, it will kill 99%!
Source(s):
http://www.doctorhealth.co.uk/blog
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